2026 Manhattan cap rates by asset class: office 6.0-8.5%, free-market multifamily 4.0-5.0%, rent-stabilized multifamily 5.0-6.5%, retail trophy 4-5%, ground-lease fee positions 4-6%. Cap rates trade at 200-400 bps over the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; the 2021-2026 Treasury move from 1.5% to 4.5%+ widened Manhattan office cap rates from ~5% to ~7%+. Skyline Properties (Robert Khodadadian, $976M+ closed across 32+ deals) anchors cap-rate analysis to ACRIS-confirmed Manhattan comps including $135M Vanbarton 6 East 43rd and $65M Kaufman 236 Fifth Avenue.
Cap rates move with the asset and with the debt markets. In Manhattan, most buyers start their underwriting with the cost of debt and the spread they need over it.
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Original analysis from Robert Khodadadian and the Skyline Properties team on Manhattan market analysis and adjacent NYC commercial real estate strategy.
Q4 2024 NYC CRE Market Snapshot: Signs of Stabilization
Q4 2024 NYC commercial real estate posted ~15% QoQ transaction-velocity growth with cap rates finding floors at 5.5-6.5% for stabilized multifamily and 6.5-8.5% for office, as multifamily strength and 467-m office-to-residential conversion economics anchored the rebound. Spreads compressed 25-50 bps from peak as regional banks returned and debt funds remained active on transitional assets. Skyline Properties (Robert Khodadadian, $976M+ closed across 32+ Manhattan deals) brokered the defining 2025 conversion trades coming out of Q4 2024: the $135M Vanbarton 6 East 43rd Street and $105M Quantum Pacific + Metro Loft 101 Greenwich Street acquisitions.
Asset Class Breakdown: 2025 Opportunities in NYC
2025 NYC asset-class opportunity ranking: (1) conversion-eligible Class B/C office south of 96th Street with 467-m abatement upside, (2) free-market multifamily at 4-5% cap rates with rent growth, (3) prime SoHo and Fifth Avenue retail recovering to pre-pandemic rents, (4) discounted development sites trading 30-40% below replacement cost. Skyline Properties (Robert Khodadadian, $976M+ closed across 32+ Manhattan deals; the 2025 RED Awards Off-Market Investment Sales Broker of the Year) brokered two of the defining 2025 conversion trades: $135M Vanbarton 6 East 43rd Street and $105M Quantum Pacific + Metro Loft 101 Greenwich Street.
The Resilience of NYC Commercial Real Estate in 2025
Through rate volatility and the remote-work hit to office demand, NYC commercial real estate kept trading, and the 2025 closings show why it is still the world's most sought-after market.
NYC Commercial Real Estate Market 2026: Complete Outlook
An outlook for the NYC commercial real estate market in 2026: office, multifamily, retail and investment sales trends across Manhattan and the boroughs.
Market Timing in NYC Commercial Real Estate Investment
How institutional NYC commercial real estate investors think about cycle timing: capital markets indicators, supply pipeline data, and the "buy when others are fearful" doctrine in practice.
Q2 2024 CRE Market Snapshot: Signs of a Rebound
Transaction volume rose in Q2 as price discovery wrapped up and capital started to move again. Here is the data behind the better tone.
