After eighteen months of price discovery, Q4 2024 shows signs that Manhattan's commercial market is finding its footing. Transaction velocity is up 15% quarter-over-quarter, with particular strength in the $10-50M segment.
Asset Class Performance
- Multifamily: Strong demand continues, especially for value-add opportunities
- Office: Bifurcated market - Class A thriving, older stock struggling
- Retail: Ground floor Manhattan recovering faster than suburban
- Industrial: Limited Manhattan inventory driving premium pricing
Financing Environment
Regional banks are slowly returning, debt funds remain active for transitional assets, and life companies are selectively competitive on stabilized deals. Spreads have compressed 25-50 bps from peak levels.
What We're Watching
- Fed trajectory and 10Y Treasury stability
- Office-to-residential conversion pipeline acceleration
- Distressed loan resolutions entering market
- Foreign capital return to NYC